Winning the opening point of your service game carries a lot more weight than you think.
Tennis is very much a game of getting ahead, which activates the scoreboard as a stealthy, second opponent to deal with.
Clearly understanding this invisible dynamic helps turn a good player into a legend of the game.
Roger Federer takes on Alexandr Dolgopolov in the Australian Open second round on Wednesday, and a study of both players’ opening-round victories shows the importance of winning the first point of the game.
Tennis is very much a game of getting ahead, which activates the scoreboard as a stealthy, second opponent to deal with.
Clearly understanding this invisible dynamic helps turn a good player into a legend of the game.
Roger Federer takes on Alexandr Dolgopolov in the Australian Open second round on Wednesday, and a study of both players’ opening-round victories shows the importance of winning the first point of the game.
In the 2015 season, when Federer won the opening point of his service game to lead 15-0, he won his service games a mind-blowing 97 per cent of the time.
The game is over, but it has barely started.
If Federer loses the first point and drops to 0-15, his chances of holding drop to 80 per cent. Still good, but that one point contains almost a 20 per cent swing.
Dolgopolov has never won a set against Federer in their two meetings, and if he is going to cause a sensational upset on Wednesday at Melbourne Park, he’d better be winning as many first points of Federer’s service games as possible.
Momentum is another invisible force that is always nice to have on your side.
In Federer’s opening round 6-2 6-1 6-2 victory over Nikoloz Basilashvili, Federer won 10 of his 11 service games, only facing one break point for the match.
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A huge reason Federer cruised so easily, and offered up just the solitary break-point opportunity, was because he was once again the master at getting ahead in his own service games.
In 11 service games, Federer won the opening point 10 times, making nine first serves along the way, including three aces.
What planet is that from?
The lone break in the match on Federer’s serve came in the opening set at 4-1, when he missed his first serve on the first point of the game.
Basilashvili then hit a deep backhand return off the second serve to Federer’s backhand, and Federer’s pressured half-volley groundstroke shanked wide.
Four points later, at 15-40, Federer also missed his first serve, and was under attack the entire point, with Basilashvili hitting a forehand approach to Federer’s backhand, and knocking off an easy forehand volley into the open court.
That was the only look-in Basiliashvili had for the entire match.
Federer made his first serve on the opening point of his next eight consecutive service games, winning every single one.
The door ajar for a moment, and then slammed firmly shut.
Is it a stretch to say that if Dolgopolov does not win the opening point of Federer’s service games, then he may as well just sit down and enjoy the ice towel? That’s probably a little extreme, but it does have a lot more statistical merit than we realise.
Winning the opening point of his opponent’s service games went a long way to helping Dolgopolov beating Richard Berankis in their opening round encounter.
Dolgopolov generated 17 break points over four sets, breaking seven times. A good day at the office.
What’s very interesting is that Dolgopolov won the first point of Berankis’ service games 10 times, had break point opportunities in nine of those games and broke in seven of them.
Berankis was not broken in any of the seven service games where he won the opening point.
It is clear that the first point of a game sets the weather for the handful of points that immediately follow it, activating the scoreboard and momentum as hidden forces that ramp up the pressure meter and the heart rate.
There will be many other strategic factors to evaluate when Dolgopolov tries to defeat Federer, but this one will definitely carry a lot of weight.
If Dolgopolov can get the scoreboard and the momentum on his side, it will prove to be a formidable foe for Federer, and the 14,000-plus fans who will turn up at Rod Laver Arena to help to carry their Swiss star to the finish line.
